This is THE critical question for FF. Unless you can answer
it, you will never know if you are there or not, and you will never have a
concrete goal to aim for. Anyone seriously seeking FF should have a specific
answer to this question, i.e. a net worth figure and a target date.
Source of image: theintentionallife.com
Initial research
I’ve spent a lot of time on this recently. Obviously before quitting
the career and packing up everything to head home after nearly two decades,
it’s important to be sure of what you’re doing. The 2008 Global Financial Crisis
is still fresh enough in mind to factor in a safety margin.
While I was reasonably confident I had enough, I started
doing some research to try and “make sure”. What I managed to find was various
numbers on what it costs for a couple to retire, e.g. “The Association of
Superannuation Funds of Australia releases a guide to how much retirees need
for retirement. They reckon a “modest retirement” is $23,489 for singles and
$33,784 for couples. Yet who wants to be modest in retirement? To have a
comfortable retirement (holidays, nice wine, trips to the flicks), you’ll need
$42,597, and $58,326 (couples). “ – Barefoot investor, 13 Jan 15
Here is another version with four lifestyle categories
:
No.
|
Lifestyle
|
Single $ p.a.
|
Couple $ p.a.
|
1
|
Doing OK
|
22,500
|
32,500
|
2
|
Comfortable
|
32,000
|
44,500
|
3
|
Doing Well
|
41,000
|
56,000
|
4
|
Premium
|
54,000
|
71,500
|
(Source: Sunsuper, Suntracker brochure)
Of course, most of these guidelines are for the average
single or average couple in Australia. You will be hard pressed to find general
guidance for a couple in their late 30’s and with young kids, aiming to retire
25+ years before the typical age. And furthermore, it was only answering part
of the question (i.e. how much you will spend, rather than the bigger question
of how big a nest egg is needed to fund this spending!)
I also found some very extreme guidelines, e.g. “when you
can live on the interest on your interest” –mentioned in “ The Rules of Wealth”,
Richard Templar. And I thought I was being conservative! That’s an extremely
stringent target especially in this recent environment of ultra low interest
rates. Even assuming Australian interest rates of say 3% (which are very high
versus other developed countries), that works out to 0.03 x 3% = 0.09%. Taking
the modest couple requiring $33.8k p.a., they would need $38 million according
to this ! And I didn’t even allow for taxes in the calculation!
Still searching for peace of mind before taking the plunge,
I decided to take advantage of the free financial advice offered by my industry
super fund. This was a worthwhile experience to get myself organized, but the
complimentary financial check-up in no way answered my specific questions on
early retirement, and I was not keen to shell out extra money for the personal
financial advice offered.
Finally some answers
So I continued my search online, and it was a very rewarding
and enlightening bonus to discover the world of FIRE (Financially Independent
Retire Early). I never knew there was a community of bloggers out there writing
about this, the very same thing I had set out to do all those years ago! And in
particular it was very valuable to find Mr Money Moustache (MMM), which I have
found to be an excellent resource and have been going through it in some detail
these past few months. It was only on this website that I managed to find
quality information that I felt was applicable to my circumstances, albeit with
geographical translation needed from US/Canada to Australia.
So what does MMM have to say on this question :
“The 4% Rule: The Easy Answer to “How Much Do I Need for Retirement?
The answers you get to
this question vary widely. Financial beginners (about 95% of the population)
tend to randomly just throw out a number between 5-100 million dollars.
Financial advisers who aren’t Mustachians will tell you that it depends on your
pre-retirement income, (with the implicit assumption that you are spending most
of what you earn) and the end answer will be somewhere between 2-10 million.
Financial Independence
enthusiasts will have the closest-to-correct answer: take your annual spending,
and multiply it by somewhere between 20 and 50. That’s your retirement number.
If you use the number 25, you’re implicitly using a 4% Safe Withdrawal Rate,
which is my own personal favorite number. “
(Source : MMM The 4% Rule )
It was a relief and gave me a lot of reassurance to find
someone who spoke logically and specifically to my questions on early
retirement. As I said before, nearly all the general information out there
simply doesn’t apply to people still in their 30’s and with young kids.
Example
So how does one apply this? Let’s go through an example of
how I would approach it…
1) Take current annual spending e.g. $44,500 (Based on a “Comfortable
Couple” as per Sunsuper).
2) Assume a multiplier, let’s chose 40 (A safety margin over
MMM’s preferred 25, but still within his suggested 20-50 range).
3) Do the multiplication: $44,500 x 40 = $1,780,000
[ Note: I didn’t consider income tax, but with an income of
$44,500 split between a couple of two, the tax rate should be relatively low.
Also considering I have been conservative in the multiplier assumption, any
taxes should be covered by this safety margin ]
Just to be clear, what exactly does this “retirement number”
mean? In my case as a home owner, it is the amount of net worth needed over and
above owning my own home outright (mortgage fully paid off). Some might include
their own home in net worth and that can be appropriate in some cases. But from
a retirement perspective, your home is not an asset providing passive income,
and so it does not contribute to this retirement number.
Potential Pitfalls
Please note that home ownership is not mandatory for FF. If
you choose to rent, then the above process still works, you just need to ensure
rent payments are included in your current annual spending.
The above is an illustrative example only. Obviously you
will need to consider different assumptions fitting your individual goals,
circumstances and risk tolerance. And accept that it will never be perfect. Of
course you could use much more complicated discounted cash flow and statistical
models. Please accept these will be imperfect too and I wouldn’t have much more
confidence in them based on the track record of most economic forecasters who
use such models. In the absence of a crystal ball, a simple and understandable approach
suits me fine.
As with any model, it’s only as good as the assumptions and
thinking which underpin it, and it can be open to both use and abuse. Try to
approach it with an open mind and no pre-conceived outcomes. You will only be
deluding yourself if you fudge the numbers. For example, say you are desperate
to retire early, so decide on a 30% reduction versus current annual spending (e.g.
$20,000 instead of $28,000) and assume the minimum multiplier of 20 to give a
retirement number of $400,000. This might serve as a data point for reference,
but it’s not prudent to go and quit your job and retire early based on this calculation alone. Before
taking such a major life decision, it would be strongly recommend to test the
robustness of the assumptions, i.e. 1) try living for at least 6 months on the
30% reduced budget and see if it is really do-able and sustainable, 2) check the
average after tax returns achieved on your investments and see if it is in line
with the 5% (plus inflation) implied by a multiplier of 20, 3) seek
professional financial advice.
Another potential pitfall is the opposite scenario, where
the retirement number calculated is so huge that people are de-motivated and
possibly give up at the outset. If you experience this, I can only suggest
breaking it down into smaller chunks. Every journey begins with a single step.
It may seem impossible to reach $1,780,000 when you are starting from scratch.
But if you look over 25 years on a straight line basis, that’s $71,000 per
annum, which is already much less intimidating, although still a very large number.
In reality, most net worth trajectories are far from straight line. Wealth
tends to accumulate more rapidly in the later years due to compounding. Try to take a
leap of faith and give it a shot. There is not much to lose – even if you don’t
quite reach your goals, I’m certain you will still be far in front versus not having
bothered about any of this.
Conclusion
The key takeaway message from this post is to spend the time
and effort to calculate your specific “retirement number”. Once you have this, FF
will no longer be a vague pipedream, but gets transformed into a concrete personal
goal with a clearly defined finish line. And now the choice is yours, if you
are ready and willing to commit or not ?