The aim of this post is to share how I’m approaching our
investments as an early retiree. Please do not consider any of this as financial
advice or recommendation. It’s really just a description of what we’re doing,
which may or may not be good for us, let alone for your circumstances which I
have no idea about!
Basically I view our portfolio in two parts : A )
residential property and B ) the rest (includes super).
At the point of retiring early, the split was 57% / 43% (of
which 10% super). This split excludes the value of our own home in Australia and
a cash emergency fund.
We immediately sold the overseas property we were staying
in. This shifted the ratio to 42% / 58% and left us with a large lump sum to
invest. I would like to reduce our property exposure A) further and firmly
intend to sell at least one more property in the next 5 years. As for the lump
sum, we invested about a third of it in index ETF’s and the rest is in high interest
accounts. I intend to dollar cost average it over the next year or two. More on
this later.
I probably better say a bit more about the investment
strategy for B)...
I view the asset allocation on an overall basis with super
included. My target allocation is 70% growth / 30% defensive. The asset classes
I invest in and target allocations are as follows :
GROWTH
Australia shares (mainly ETF but also some direct blue
chips) = 38.5%
Global shares = 31.5% (target around 3% of this AUD hedged)
Commercial property = 0%
DEFENSIVE
Aus Fixed interest (including term deposits) = 7.5%
Global FI = 0%
Cash (includes high interest saving accounts) = 22.5%
A bit of explanation, starting with the portfolio exclusions...
I’m not keen on commodities, hedge funds, private equity,
etc. Commods : I just don’t buy the arguments about diversification / inflation
hedging, and I don’t see them as being assets worth holding for any other
reason. HF/PE : very high in fees and again I’m not convinced they bring the
diversification benefits many others hope for.
Commercial property, I feel there’s already enough in the
ASX, not to mention my own overweight residential portfolio.
Global FI. I don’t want to touch it in this world of zero
interest rates and QE. Even Aus FI I have set quite low for the same reason. I
believe interest rates are at an extreme setting and they will eventually
normalise. Once that happens I will be willing to invest a bit more of my
defensive into FI, perhaps half or even a bit more of the defensive part.
For the shares I have split it 55% Aus / 45% global. I have
been keen on 50/50 (as I’ve discussed quite a bit in the MMM forums), but
eventually tilted a bit to the local as the franking credits and yield are ever
so alluring. It’s also a pragmatic issue, as my international is held in
VTS/VEU which do not allow dividend reinvestment. Whereas my Aus shares have a
large portion of dividends reinvesting. Furthermore VEU has 5% Australia
embedded. Due to these effects, it basically means if I add new contributions
in a 50/50 ratio, it will roughly work out being allocated 55% Aus / 45%
global. So I plan to alternate fresh fund investments every four months
VAS/VTS/VAS/VEU in the same clip size.
To reiterate my position as per MMM forums, you need global
shares for diversification as the ASX is highly concentrated in banks,
property, mining, etc ; and gives limited exposure to Tech, pharmaceutical,
heathcare etc. However there are big advantages to investing locally with the
ASX high yield and franking credits. I don’t think there’s any scientific
optimum, but personally I feel anywhere in the range 70/30 to 40/60 is
acceptable, depending on which factors you weight the most. As it happens, my
55/45 split is at the midpoint of this...
So, after explaining the plan/strategy for B), I will
backtrack to our lump sum from the overseas property sale. The actual asset
allocation is currently quite divergent from target. I’m around 51% growth /
49% defensive right now. I’ll be investing decent amounts on a monthly basis
until I reach the target. I’m not aiming to time the market, so I will adopt a
regular pattern. On the 1st of the month I will invest 2.5k in Mrs FFA’s super.
On the 10th day I will invest 20k in VAS/VTS/VEU (alternating as explained
earlier). On the 20th day I will invest 2.5k in my super. This will put $30k in
each of our super which is the concessional limit. And it means we’re investing
80% outside super and 20% inside. I’m not keen to add any further into super if
there is no additional tax benefit (up to $30k we can tax deduct as
self/unemployed). Our marginal tax rates are likely to be 19%, so super only
gives a small tax benefit at 15%, which I don’t think is adequate to compensate
the lengthy restrictions and regulatory risk. Of course if you are salary
sacrificing and getting other tax benefits it’s a different story (hence we are
maximising concessional contributions).
A caveat on market timing, if there’s a substantial correction
in share prices, I will accelerate the investment plan with some additional
bargain hunting purchases. I don’t intend to monitor the markets closely. But
if it’s the kind of thing you hear about regardless, e.g. you see newspapers on
the table with “MARKET MELTDOWN” on the front page, I will be tempted to make
an extra online trade and scoop up additional cheap units. If the ASX ever
heads back to 5,000 or thereabouts I will be doing this surely.
Once the asset allocation eventually reaches target, I will
drop the large regular investments and maintain/rebalance periodically. There
might be another big lump sum to invest when we sell the next property (we might
wait a few years as it’s in perth and the market is weak there now), after
which I will probably repeat this process, i.e. invest a third/half straight
away and trickle the rest in over a year or two. So far the decision has paid
off, as the share markets were higher back in April/May, but who knows how it
will turn out. In any case, I have made this plan and I intend to stick to it.
I hope this gives you some insight into how I’m approaching
our investment portfolio. It is far from perfect and there are quite a few
legacy aspects that I would not repeat if I was starting over. Where possible I
will try and simplify the approach and portfolio. I look forward to playing
this out and see how well we can comply with the plan! Please feel free to
leave any comments, suggestions or questions....

